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2024.05.29 08:47 Slayers_Picks UFC 302 Fight Predictions!
Hello!
I hope you're all doing well!
Gonna try to keep this under 40k characters... so, the main event is going to be a bit shorter than usual, so if you have questions about that particular fight (or any, really), let me know and i can expand on thoughts and answer those questions!
Also, if you have feedback about the slightly new format, let me know!
(c) - Champ
D/DWCS - Debut/Dana Whites' Contender Series
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in division
x/3 - Confidence Levels
Lets go!
Prelims
Flyweight
Andre Lima (8-0-0, 8 FWS) v Mitch Raposo (D) (9-1-0, 4 FWS) - I feel for Lima here, three changes in opponent during this entire camp, that can’t be easy for the mental stress, but I do think that this last minute change gives Lima that advantage in preparation and cardio and such.
Lima is coming off quite an interesting debut result, in which his opponent straight up chomped on Lima’s arm. For the most part prior to that unique moment, Lima was doing relatively well on the feet, his boxing was crisp and whilst Severino was being pretty effective with his wrestling and pressure, you can almost see Lima settle in the longer the fight went on, and in the second round, he was finding his punches fairly easily, landing at a 66% rate in that second round. That has always been Lima’s main attribute as a boxer, his accuracy is oftentimes high when he fights, never wasting many shots as he sets his own pace and finds his timing, and it’s going to be relatively effective against Raposo who has a slight disadvantage in reach, and has a rather funky style himself, and sometimes funk is fun, but not when you have a sharp boxer opposite you.
Raposo is someone who tried to get into the UFC a while ago via Dana Whites’ Contender Series, but didn’t quite succeed due to a loss against Jake Hadley. Raposo is a fairly well rounded fighter but from the footage that I have seen, he is mostly a stand up fighter who utilises variations of a two to three punch combination, with a bit of an emphasis on his wide right that he tends to swing from a somewhat loaded up position. Now, I do want to point out in a positive light that he does come from the New England Cartel, and that gym generally produces outstanding strikers, but I just think Raposo is a few steps (or leaps) behind the stars of the gym in Kattar and Font. Now, there are positives for Raposo, he shells up relatively well and he doesn’t stay in firing range the whole time, especially when shelling up, he circles away whilst keeping his guard up. The one thing I cannot help but notice though is how exposed his body is to attacks, he isn’t that adaptable when it comes to his defences, and whilst he has a very typical high shell, I can just see Lima exposing the body with strong punches, and given that Raposo isn’t quite prepared properly for a fight against Lima, those body punches could shut him down. Now, Raposo does have a strong right hand, the one he tends to wind up and throw from the same angle at the same speed and such, but once it lands it could certainly cause trouble for Lima.
Lima has incredible potential in the UFC, his boxing is very sharp and I do think that the fact he has been preparing for a fight for quite some time now shows that he has the cardio and the durability to perhaps outlast Raposo, especially if those body shots that I predict will be there, land effectively. I almost want to make him a 2/3 confidence pick, but since he’s new to the UFC, and Raposo does have a bit of danger himself, I don’t feel comfortable putting him that high of a confidence pick. This is a fun first fight of the night.
Lima via KO R2 - (1/3)
Women’s Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards (+210) (13-5-0, NS) v Ailin Perez (-265) (9-2-0, 2 FWS)
Edwards has had an interesting time in the UFC, she has had rather lacklustre performances against some of the more lower skilled fighters in the division. Edwards was introduced to us fans as a kickboxer from Panama, and for the most part her performances have echoed that style of kickboxing, but she walks into two metaphorical brick walls which hinder her performances. First, her cardio tends to fall apart relatively quickly, she does look fatigued after the second round, heck, even during it, and I do think considering Perez’s skillset is heavily wrestling based, that the fatigue problems will be a bit more prevalent, but that also tends to lead to a different issue that Edwards walks into, and that’s her weight. See, Edwards missed weight a few times in the UFC so far, and whilst those issues on the scales are perhaps anomalous to those two incidences, it does somewhat connect with her fatigue problems, she carries a lot of weight on fight day and that’s all a major contributor to exhaustion and fatigue. As for her record, it’s been stated many times, but she’s been gifted quite a few scorecards… She arguably lost to Pascual, Pudilova and even went to a split decision against Kim Ji-yeon. To say her record is pretty sketchy is putting it lightly. Her style is pretty standard for a boxer or kickboxer, she often strings together decent combinations with a fair bit of power given her size, but her major weakness is defending takedowns, and given that Perez is perhaps the first major wrestler that she is going to face, I suspect she’s going to be struggling to defend those takedowns, especially the longer the fight goes on, when that fatigue problem kicks in (if it kicks in).
Perez on the other hand is slightly more newer to the UFC, having had her debut at 145 against Egger before moving back down to 135 to take on Ashlee Evans-Smith and Pudilova, and it was in those two fights that we truly saw what Perez is capable of. Perez is very dependent on her takedowns, she does not strike a whole lot on her feet, she often uses some strikes to close the distance then level changes for a takedown or a judo throw, in which she then unleashes a lot of ground strikes, and it’s a bit obvious to me that she is going to utilise that exact style against the much taller and longer Edwards. Now, the longer this fight remains on the feet, the more chance Edwards has of pulling away with a win, but I only say that because I know that Edwards is going to have a striking advantage, but her kicks perhaps would be shut down by the wrestling threat of Perez.
This is very much a wrestler versus striker bout, and whilst you might argue that Edwards has shown some wrestling in her last fight against Cornolle, it’s important to know that Cornolle most definitely was not a wrestler so those takedowns would have been relatively easy, and there’s no doubt that Edwards has worked on her wrestling just so she is a more well rounded individual. I still firmly believe that Perez is going to get a win here through her wrestling, and the longer the fight goes on, the more Edwards is most likely to feel that fatigue. I am predicting a KO here, but it is going to be one of those ground and pound TKO’s. It’s also very possible this fight goes the distance so if you want to place a bet, either double chance this one or just have it go o2.5 or something.
Perez via KO R3 - (2/3)
Welterweight
Mickey Gall (+225) (7-5-0, 2 FLS) v Bassil Hafez (-290) (8-4-1, NS) - There is honestly not a lot to say about this one, Gall is severely overrated and a bit of a failed product of the Lookin’ for a fight show, and Hafez still has quite a lot to show us given he went three rounds against future contender Jack Della Maddalena.
Gall is coming off back to back losses over two years ago, so not only is he coming into this fight with a tough losing streak on his record, but those two years away are certainly muddying the waters a bit here. Anyway, Gall is mostly a submission artist, he somewhat thrives on the ground, although that would be a major gamble given the fact that Hafez is very wrestling oriented, and I mean, let's be honest, as long as a wrestler is in top control, it’s very rarely that they get submitted, and it’s not like Gall is some high level BJJ fighter with an impeccable record, he is just someone who has been given somewhat name-worthy opponents and that’s practically it. Gall's best chance to win this fight is on the ground, he needs to stick to his guns in this fight and be incredibly active on the ground or Hafez is going to shut down all of the submission attempts and just smother Gall in pressure. There is a possibility of Gall being somewhat effective on the feet, but a lot of his striking is fairly standard, often really using his grappling over anything else to get a win. One thing I don’t particularly like seeing when it comes to Gall’s striking is he is very still and perhaps too calm when he’s standing in front of someone, he doesn’t move his head a lot and his lead leg is often very out there and exposed, and whilst he does have quite a bit of power in his hands, I just don’t think he’s that capable of being a strong striker, his best skillset really is his BJJ. He is often quick to tie up his opponent or at least grab for a guillotine, and that guillotine will be there for him the more Hafez looks for takedowns, that will probably be the main threat coming from Gall for Hafez in my opinion.
Hafez has only one fight in the UFC but it was against one of the toughest opponents one can possibly debut against in Jack Della Maddalena, and whilst Hafez was simply outmatched on the feet, he persevered and still looked for those takedowns that he very much needed. It is the style of Hafez that will test Gall in this fight, because if Hafez attempted 20 takedowns against JDM who has exceptional takedown defence, I just think Hafez is going to have a bit of an easier time against Gall who is mostly a BJJ fighter who typically has terrible takedown defence, and I mean, this is something i’ve gone on and on about many times before, a good wrestler is a lot better than a good BJJ fighter, and whilst this is not exactly a case of Gall being a good BJJ fighter and Hafez being a good wrestler, that style clash is basically the same. Even if Gall does put up a good defence/offence on the ground, I do think Hafez and his grappling skillset is more than enough to deal with it. Hafez has gorgeous double leg takedowns, I mean, look at this beautiful takedown he used just seconds into his debut against JDM, he can do this over and over again, and realistically, he just needs to do this for the first two rounds, then he pretty much gets a win, but I think it’s going to be a relatively one sided wrestling attack by Hafez, and a few defensive submission attempts by Gall like guillotines or arm triangles off his back.
This is a great fight to be honest, I was rather impressed by the grit and determination of Hafez, he was getting torn up on the feet by JDM but still was willing to try and wrestle, resulting in a split decision loss, but an immeasurable amount of experience gained. I think Hafez gets a win here, but I only say that because I just don’t know how Gall is going to look coming off of a two year hiatus. We have sometimes seen insane improvements from fighters who take a few years off, so it’s possible Gall could look incredibly good, but based on what I know for “certain”, I think Hafez has this one.
Hafez via UD - (1/3)
Welterweight
Niko Price (+210) (15-7-0, 2 FLS) v Alex Morono (-260) (24-9-0, NS)
Morono is coming off a fairly competitive back and forth fight against McGee, and whilst he got the win, he didn’t look too great in there in all honesty. Morono does quite a few things with his striking that looks very funky and silly, he plods around a lot, his open elbow stance leaves him very open to being attacked, which often plays into his speed advantage in his fights as he can easily retaliate very quickly and land some thunderous punches. Morono is a very powerful boxer and he often uses a very quick left body or inside/outside leg kick with his boxing combinations just to add more sting to the sequence. However, as much as I find his striking style to be very unorthodox, what I do love about him is his grappling. Morono has ridiculously good BJJ, and whilst he doesn’t have the best takedown defence to take full control of his grappling ability, he is very, very good off his back. During his fight against Court McGee, he jumped the Guillotine, and whilst he didn’t successfully submit McGee, he was proactive in chasing an armbar off his back instead… It is the activity off the bottom that makes him a dangerous grappler and it’s always great to see. Now, Morono most likely has a fairly big power advantage here, and given that Price is coming off back to back KO losses, there is some question about whether or not his chin is durable enough to handle the right hand of Morono, and boy that right hand is a tough one to deal with.
Price is indeed coming off a KO loss against Robbie Lawler, and whilst it’s a tough loss for anyone, I do think that he still offers a great deal of threat for Morono, and whilst one might imagine the threat is going to be mostly his punching power, volume and other delicious words, I firmly believe that Price is going to chew up the legs of Morono very early and very often. Price is a fantastic leg kicker, he lands about one third of his strikes to the legs most of the time, and given that Morono is a very “plodding” stance fighter, I just cannot help but imagine that Price is going to land phenomenal leg kicks throughout this fight. However, the counter for leg kicks is, as we all should know by now, a power side attack, and if Price gets hit by that right hand, the momentum could shift very quickly. Now, if the fight ends up on the ground, I do think that Morono is going to swarm Price with overwhelming pressure and activity, given that Morono has excellent BJJ, and Price isn’t exactly that well versed on the ground.
As long as Price avoids the grappling and wrestling of Morono, he has a solid chance to win this fight, but I do think if he attacks the legs early and slows down the forward aggression of Morono, he could pull out an upset here, but that’s a bit of a big order given the threat of Morono’s quick one-two and his ability to utilise a wide range of attacks throughout all three rounds. This is very much a 50/50 fight though, I don’t feel confident at all in either fighter to win, and whilst I think Morono has more tools and more pathways to victory, Price could indeed surprise us this weekend.
Morono via UD - (1/3)
Welterweight
Phil Rowe (+135) (10-4-0, NS) v Jake Matthews (-165) (19-7-0, NS) - This is certainly a fascinating fight, but the first thing that screams at me is the size difference between Rowe and Matthews.
Rowe is coming off a back and forth, relatively slow and unimpressive fight against Magny, and whilst the fight took place in the clinch for the large majority of the fight, I did enjoy watching him use his reach by throwing that quick one-two down the pipe, and its that one-two that is going to be fairly problematic for Matthews given the fact that Rowe has an 8 inch reach advantage. I do believe that if Rowe keeps this fight clean, he has a major advantage here, but there is a glaring problem that I can see Matthews expose, and that’s the lack of defence that Rowe has. Whilst his ranged attacks are relatively effective, I do not like how hittable he is because he does not use footwork a lot, he just stands in front of his opponents target zone, kind of eating punches whilst trying to maintain his range. This is a problem for Rowe in this fight because Matthews is the type to push forward at a strong pace and let his own hands go effectively. Rowe has a phenomenal right hand, it is very accurate and thanks to the reach advantage, I don’t think he needs to show it off too much for it to be effective, he would just need to pop it out there in order to have it land. Now, Magny did make the fight gritty in the third round when they fought, and I did notice that whenever a pocket exchange is initiated, Rowe is on the receiving end of the harder shots, and that is primarily due to his lack of footwork and evasive movement in that particular bout, and whilst he did underperform during his fight against Magny, I do think he has the sharper, straighter punches that could be problematic for Matthews if Matthews is unable to close the distance and enter the pocket effectively.
Matthews is coming off a tough loss against Michael Morales, and it was in that fight that we saw Matthews get hit the most in his UFC career, receiving 84 significant strikes, although I think it’s fair to say that Matthews’ incredible defence allowed him to absorb those significant strikes without much serious damage. Matthews’ defence is actually one of the most impressive things I have seen, he shells up so effectively whilst leaving his stance open enough for aggressive retaliation. Everything Matthews throws comes with him immediately shelling up and moving off the centre line, he is impeccable with his defensive timing, and whilst he has been stumbled and rocked before, he has never really been in dire trouble. I do see Matthews using his overhand left followed by a quick duck followed by a straight right, that is his best entrance for the pocket and it is something he has used incredibly well against Morales. It is this exact style which makes his fight against Rowe a phenomenal match up because we have seen Rowe struggle when an opponent enters range, and I think Matthews is a lot more quick and explosive with forward momentum than Magny is. Plus, it helps that Matthews is such a gritty fighter, constantly moving forward and putting on strong pressure even if he gets hit, and that’s mostly due to his defence, he is just so good at absorbing and blocking damage whilst moving forward.
It honestly is a bit of a story between who can initiate their gameplan a bit better. For Rowe, he needs to be active at range, on the feet, he needs to use that quick one-two to freeze up Matthews and just eventually find the chin, because the chin is there, especially if feints are involved because Matthews does instinctively shell up a lot when something is coming his way, feint or otherwise. However, I do see Matthews making this a chaotic fight, especially since he loves to enter the range by weaving into the pocket, where Rowe is perhaps at his most uncomfortable. I got Matthews winning this one, I think his experience is going to shine here, as well as the fact that his defensive habits are going to be pivotal in mitigating a lot of the dangerous shots coming his way. I am not very confident in Matthews, I do see Rowe being dangerous at range still, but I just think Matthews ability to enter the pocket here is going to be the main story here.
Matthews via UD - (1/3)
Lightweight
Grant Dawson (#15) (-320) (20-2-1, NS) v Joe Solecki (+250) (13-4-0, NS)
Dawson is coming off a rough KO loss against Bobby Green, and that was always going to be one of the main outcomes for that fight since Green has excellent boxing, and thankfully for Dawson, that boxing or striking threat will be mostly gone here since Solecki isn’t at all a striker. Dawson is a very well rounded fighter who is incredibly effective on the ground, he is someone who is able to keep up a high pace of activity and still have enough cardio to be explosive, and I do think that the UFC is kind of making this fight a “comeback” fight for Dawson because I honestly don’t think Solecki has enough of an all round threat to make this interesting for Dawson. Dawson is going to employ the same strategy he has done in almost all of his fights, and that’s wrestle and control, he is so good at maintaining advantageous positions on the ground and the longer he is in top control, the worse it is for Solecki whose only chance to win this fight is to find a submission off his back, but since Dawson has ridiculously good wrestling and grappling himself, I think he can see any set up that Solecki attempts coming. On the feet I could say Dawson has the advantage here, but I don’t think a lot of the fight is going to take place on the feet, I think there’s going to be a lot of wrestling involved with Dawson being in the better positions.
Solecki is a sneaky fighter though, and whilst he has had some underwhelming fights, I do think the threat of his submissions are going to be fairly prevalent. I don’t think those submissions are going to land. Now, I will put a major disclaimer here saying I have struggled to find a lot of “working” tape for Solecki, and I have been unable to find what submission attempts he used against Alex Da Silva when they fought two years ago, I only bring this up because I believe Solecki is active off his back and if he is lucky he could at least make Dawson’s control time a bit more difficult, but I still don’t think Solecki has that kind of threat to catch Dawson in anything, so whilst he might be active off his back and in the guard, it’s going to be the kind of activity that results in Dawson just adjusting over and over.
I don’t really have much else to say about this one, Dawson is the better all round fighter and a much better wrestler, and I do think that whilst both fighters have outstanding BJJ, Solecki’s submission output could make it a bit gritty for Dawson, but this isn’t new for Dawson, Dawsons faced excellent grapplers before (Ismagulov, Madsen and Gordon to name his recent wins). Dawson should win this one in my opinion.
Dawson via UD - (2/3)
Middleweight
Roman Kopylov (-135) (12-3-0, NS) v Cesar Almeida (+115) (5-0-0, 5 FWS)
Kopylov is coming off a tough submission loss against Alexander Hernandez, and it was a competitive fight up until that point. One thing that I like about Kopylov is his diversity with striking, he is ridiculously quick on the feet for a Middleweight and that allows him to simply flick out anything and there’s some certainty that it’s going to land. He has a very quick and sneaky lead leg kick that he often uses to change target very quickly, usually kicking the leg then following up with a left straight, instead of what we see in typical combinations where the leg kick is the final attack in a sequence. Kopylov does get hit a lot, and he does leave his right hand a bit far from his face, which makes me think that Almeida and his fantastic left hook is going to be a major problem for Kopylov. However, Kopylov does have some grappling in his arsenal, although we have yet to see it in the UFC, but since he is a multiple time sambo champion, I can’t help but think that he is going to be using his wrestling a fair bit in this fight, especially since he is facing one hell of a dangerous kickboxer, it would only make some sense, right? Now, on the feet, there are two attacks that Kopylov is going to put a major emphasis on, that is the liver body kick (left roundhouse) and the left straight, those two attacks are going to be his most damaging and I do wonder how effective it will be in slowing down Almeida.
Almeida is coming off a strong debut win against Budka, and whilst Budka isn’t exactly a tough debut, he still managed to test Almeida a little bit on the ground. However, as I highlighted in my last write up about Almeida, his defensive grappling is very, very good, he has adapted exceptionally well to MMA. Now, Almeida is one hell of a dangerous kickboxer, he is stupendously sharp on the feet and he is tight with his combinations, and it is for that reason alone that I think Kopylov needs to wrestle in this fight, use his Sambo to mix it up and make it frustrating for Almeida. Now, Almeida is outstanding at all ranges, but I think he excels in the pocket where he can land his tight left hook, a left hook that’s eerily similar to Pereira, it’s just a clean left hook that has no read and a lot of power behind it, and I think Kopylov is going to have to be the first one to start the action in order to not let Almeida settle in to throw that hook.
This is going to be a fantastic fight though, and honestly a fascinating match up for Kopylov who, up until this moment, only faced standard MMA strikers who throw big power with not that much technique, so this is going to be fascinating. Going with the underdog here, but it will absolutely not be a high confidence pick.
Almeida via KO R2 - (1/3)
Main Card
Welterweight
Randy Brown (-155) (18-5-0, 2 FWS) v Elizeu Zaleski (+130) (24-7-1, 1D/2FWS) - This is going to be absolutely awesome.
Brown is coming off a fantastic KO over highly touted kickboxing veteran Muslim Salikhov, and despite the fact that Brown did defeat Salikhov, it did not come without a lot of damage coming his way. Brown suffers a little bit from what a lot of longer and taller fighters suffer from, and that's a lack of fundamental striking defence, his range and reach is his defence, if someone can penetrate that reach difference and enter the pocket, then Brown is a vulnerable target in that moment. However, when Brown is at range and he’s in the zone, he is incredible. His long jab is his best weapon, he uses it to both damage his opponent and to set up subsequent punches, and these shots aren’t always the same, there are so many permutations of that same set up, as soon as you see Brown throw more than one jab, you know he is setting up a clean combination. However, he has shown a bit of a weakness and that’s his legs, he is so easy to leg kick due to his height and size, his lead leg is ripe for the taking and there is little doubt in my mind that Zaleski is going to chew up those legs early, as that was the game plan for Salikhov before that one-one-two combination came his way at ridiculous speeds.
Zaleski is coming off a draw against Rinat Fakhretdinov, and very early on we saw Zaleski struggle with the pressure and power of Fakhretdinov. That pressure and power is not exactly the style of fighting that Brown utilises, Brown is a lot more patient and systematic with his approach, never pressuring his opponent but keeping a constant pace of a wide sort of attacks. Zaleski has ridiculous power in his hands though and he has the speed and explosiveness to enter the pocket and land those dangerous punches that are going to land whenever he is going to enter the pocket during this bout. However, Zaleski does not have the best defence, he often leaves his hands a bit low, and whilst that’s great for an explosive overhand or a quick burst of action that’s hard to read, I don’t think that’s a good kind of defence when you’re fighting someone who has a 5 inch reach advantage and a 4 inch height advantage. Zaleski is not a safe fighter, he is here to perform and look for highlights, he is an incredible finisher, but he is also reckless, he is also susceptible to getting hurt, and whilst he did exceptionally well against Fakhretdinov, that was mostly due to Fakhretdinov’s predictable attacks. Now, Fakhretdinov threw the same attacks over and over, and since that same attack was the one that dropped Zaleski, he kept using that same thing. In order to be effective in any combat sport, especially against a veteran, you need to have different combinations, and that’s exactly what Brown has, he has such a wide range of attacks, including his very snappy front and head kicks, so there is little doubt that Zaleski is going to be somewhat overwhelmed on the feet if Brown finds his groove early on.
This is a fantastic fight, perhaps one of the best fights on this card, I expect there to be fireworks and a lot of adjustments as the rounds go on, but I do think that Brown is going to get a win here, his reach and height advantage gives him a lot of additional set ups and effective strikes, those front kicks up the middle could be effective given the loose shell of Zaleski, and those long one-two punches that Brown uses are just beautiful to watch. This is going to be awesome. Now, before I get to the prediction… Zaleski has the right tools to make this messy enough to get a win here, so there will be an alt bet here for a Zaleski Points/KO Double Chance.
Brown via UD - (1/3)
Heavyweight
Jailton Almeida (#6) (-300) (20-3-0, NS) v Alexandr Romanov (#14) (+240) (17-2-0, NS)
Almeida is coming off a KO loss against Blaydes just a few months ago, and I mean, losing to someone like Blaydes isn’t too big of a deal since Blaydes is a genuine talent in the division, but I do wonder how Almeida has improved since that loss. Almeida is a very grapple heavy fighter who has torn through a division full of unathletic brawlers, and now he is facing fighters who have a very similar style and skill set that he has, which makes this fight all that more interesting because I have been very high on Romanov in recent years, mostly due to his style being unique in the heavyweight division. Almeida has ridiculous cardio for someone at heavyweight, and whilst you could argue that his lay and pray style does not really reflect great cardio… how often are we going to see Blaydes get taken down 9 of 13 times. 13 fucking attempts against someone who has one of the best wrestling backgrounds in the UFC at heavyweight? Almeida’s wrestling is going to be a problem for a lot of people, even as we move up the division, but it comes at a cost. Almeida is very one dimensional, he has a heavy reliance on those takedowns, and if he doesn’t get them, you get a repeat of what Blaydes did to him. On the feet I don’t see a lot happening, Almeida has shown to be a bit more free with his boxing, only to open up his opponent to takedowns, and that could very well be the gameplan for Almeida this weekend, box a little then shoot for a takedown, and it could be effective against Romanov who is a bit more one dimensional than Almeida.
Romanov has somewhat stagnated a tiny bit in his career, with a not-very-recent win over Blagoy Ivanov, and for the most part it was a strong showing of his wrestling ability and strength, however I do question the quality of opponent that Romanov has defeated in comparison to Almeida’s… It seems that Almeida has been given the more star-power names whereas Romanov has been climbing the ranks in a more natural way. Anyway, I like Romanov, but I genuinely don’t think he is going to fare well against someone like Almeida. If an old 40+ year old in Espino can out wrestle Romanov, there is no doubt that a younger and perhaps more athletic fighter in Almeida can replicate that same kind of style and just overwhelm Romanov. Romanov is a strong competitor though so I think there might be enough resistance in the wrestling department to make this fight a long, gruelling one.
A very fun clash of similar styles here, which I find pretty important since Almeida is a very impressive fighter, and I think the more we see him take on opponents with a similar style to himself, the more we get to see what he is truly capable of. I got Almeida winning this one, it should be a fun fight!
Almeida via UD - (2/3)
Middleweight
Kevin Holland (-250) (25-11-0, 2 FLS) v Michal Oleksiejczuk (+200) (19-7-0, NS) - Oh man do I love this fight.
Holland is coming off back to back losses against JDM and MVP (Jack Della Maddalena and Michael “Venom” Page”), and whilst back to back losses could easily make people dismiss Holland, I do want to bring up how competitive his fight against JDM was, and how durable and tough he was when MVP was taking his soul in what was such a brilliant display of unorthodox kickboxing. Holland has always been a game fighter, he has a chin that allows him to hang in there with the hardest hitters, and he is genuinely a very skilled fighter who has outstanding boxing and such an expert at range and luring his opponent into an angle that gives him an advantage. Holland is coming back up to 185 after a fun stint at 170, and since Oleksiejczuk has very little wrestling threat, I am excited to see if we witness Holland be himself once again, because prior to his losses against Brunson and Vettori at 185, he was a dangerous fighter. Holland has a substantial reach advantage coming into this fight which is only going to shine even more when Oleksiejczuk tries to box him in a typical boxing range. Holland is also a fairly experienced grappler, he has quite a few submissions on his record and I do think that if he wants the path of least resistance when fighting Oleksiejczuk, he is going to look for that takedown and find a submission. However, that’s not how Holland fights, he is a crowd pleaser and is most likely going to want to keep this fight standing so he can land his quick combinations at range and just put away Oleksiejczuk that way.
Oleksiejczuk is coming off a tough sub loss against Pereira, and I honestly learnt nothing else about him during that fight, he was still looking for those heavy punches, and he still had somewhat bad takedown defence. I do think that Oleksiejczuk’s best chance to win this fight is to put Holland away, but it’s just a bit of a tall order because if Holland couldn’t get knocked out by the ridiculous power of MVP, I don’t think Oleksiejczuk is going to achieve that success that MVP tried to chase. The reach disadvantage is going to be fairly prominent here too, it’s going to make Oleksiejczuk rush in a little bit with some explosive forward movement in order to cover the distance, but Holland is so good at crowding punches and being hard to hit that I just don’t think Oleksiejczuk is going to land too cleanly on Holland.
With that said, I’ve always been a fan of Holland so maybe there is a bit of bias here, but I think Holland wins this one, i’m just mostly curious to see how he looks when he returns to 185 this weekend.
Holland via KO R2 - (2/3)
Co-Main Event
Middleweight
Sean Strickland (#2) (-205) (28-6-0, NS) v Paulo Costa (#8) (+170) (14-3-0, NS)
Strickland is coming off a very competitive fight against Dricus Du Plessis, and whilst he arguably won that fight, what I was most impressed with was the little amount of damage he absorbed, even by one of the most powerful punchers in DDP, and if Strickland could absorb that little amount of damage from DDP, I can only think that he is going to be relatively fine against Costa. Strickland does struggle a little bit in turning up the pressure when pressure is needed, he does have a bit of a predictable style which has been talked about for ages, but it’s a style that works, and if he sets a high pace of steady volume and walks Costa back throughout the fight, he can easily win this fight. The only thing that Strickland needs to be careful of is the power of Costa coming back his way.
Costa is coming off a tough loss against Whittaker, and whilst he did display that power late into the first round, he struggled to keep up with the speed and footwork of Whittaker. Now, the good news for Costa is that Stricklands footwork only involves walking forward, and occasionally taking a step back, there is no tricky blitzes or anything, so the striking success rate for Costa should be at least more stable numerically in the second and third if he doesn’t succumb to the pressure and slow down in those two rounds. However, I don’t trust Costa’s gas tank that much, he may be a physical specimen but the power he throws with is unsustainable for a three round back and forth, and it’s certainly not the first time Strickland has fought a powerhouse. My main concern however is the judges scorecards, and I know its a bit weird to talk about judging, but when you have big action fighters throwing things that aren’t super effective, the visuals reflect effectiveness, regardless of the supposed damage received, will the judges this fight see Costa throw heavy, despite not landing cleanly (which is hard to do against Strickland) and give the rounds to Costa? If that is the case, then a Costa Decision certainly should be in your books, but I just think that Strickland and his 4 inch reach advantage is going to be too effective in stifling the aggression of Costa.
I ultimately have Strickland winning this fight, I never really have been big on Costa, he’s a fun fighter to watch, but when you have Strickland taking away a lot of that fun by marching down a lot of his opponents, you get a Costa that struggles to keep up a bit. This is going to be a low confidence pick due to the judging factor, I have a weird feeling about this one lol.
Strickland via UD - (1/3)
Main Event
Lightweight Championship Bout
Islam Makhachev (c) (-480) (25-1-0, 13 FWS) v Dustin Poirier (#5) (+360) (30-8-0, NS)
Makhachev is one of the most well rounded fighters in the UFC at the moment. Everything he does is with clean technique and outstanding timing, and he has the cardio to keep up a ridiculously high pace for 5 rounds. There is no doubt in my mind that he is going to be using his brilliant wrestling and grappling to slowly dismantle Poirier, because Poirier’s grappling is rudimentary at best, it does not hold a candle to Makhachevs wrestling. There is a lot of discussion about Poirier landing a guillotine on Makhachev, but it’s all hype and hope at this rate because if he could not land a guillotine on BSD, he probably isn’t going to land one against a high level wrestler in Makhachev. Makhachev is a few steps behind when it comes to boxing though, I do not see him being successful against Poirier on the feet, Poirier’s striking is sublime, it is the most brilliant close range striking that you’ll probably ever see in the LW division, those tight hooks he uses is something nasty.
Poirier is on his last legs career wise, there is quite a lot weighing on him for this one as it is his final chance to get a belt, so that’s already a lot of pressure, but I guess he thrives in this kind of environment. Poirier is going to have to contend with the almost instant wrestling pressure and pace of Makhachev, and given that Poirier is not at all a wrestler, he is going to get taken down, he got taken down quite a few times when he fought a very depleted BSD, and now he’s coming up against a very physically ready Makhachev, I just don’t see Poirier doing too well in the wrestling department against Makhachev. However, when it comes to the striking, Poirier holds all the cards here, he has incredible timing with his lead hook and if he times it right, that uppercut could be disastrous for Makhachev. It’s going to be the hook and the uppercut that catch Makhachev, but if Makhachev can survive those attacks and get his hands wrapped around Poirier, it’s not going to matter if Poirier rocks Makhachev in the process, Makhachev is insane in top position.
That’s the story here, Poirier’s boxing versus Makhachevs wrestling and grappling. I got Makhachev winning this one, but it is always a good idea to sprinkle a bit of money on a Poirier KO, especially since he’s such a big underdog here.
Makhachev via Sub R2 - (2/3)
And that's it!
Primary Parlay - Price/Morono o2.5 or GTD + Dawson/Solecki o2.5 or GTD + Almeida/Kopylov ITD + Makhachev/Poirier ITD
Secondary Parlay - Price/Morono o2.5 or GTD + Almeida/Romanov R3 Starts Yes + Strickland/Costa o2.5 + Makhachev/Poirier u3.5 or ITD
Locks: Perez (optional), Dawson, Almeida, Holland and Makhachev.
Prediction Accuracy for 2024: 64.3%
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I hope you're all doing well!
Gonna try to keep this under 40k characters... so, the main event is going to be a bit shorter than usual, so if you have questions about that particular fight (or any, really), let me know and i can expand on thoughts and answer those questions!
Also, if you have feedback about the slightly new format, let me know!
(c) - Champ
D/DWCS - Debut/Dana Whites' Contender Series
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in division
x/3 - Confidence Levels
Lets go!
Prelims
Flyweight
Andre Lima (8-0-0, 8 FWS) v Mitch Raposo (D) (9-1-0, 4 FWS) - I feel for Lima here, three changes in opponent during this entire camp, that can’t be easy for the mental stress, but I do think that this last minute change gives Lima that advantage in preparation and cardio and such.
Lima is coming off quite an interesting debut result, in which his opponent straight up chomped on Lima’s arm. For the most part prior to that unique moment, Lima was doing relatively well on the feet, his boxing was crisp and whilst Severino was being pretty effective with his wrestling and pressure, you can almost see Lima settle in the longer the fight went on, and in the second round, he was finding his punches fairly easily, landing at a 66% rate in that second round. That has always been Lima’s main attribute as a boxer, his accuracy is oftentimes high when he fights, never wasting many shots as he sets his own pace and finds his timing, and it’s going to be relatively effective against Raposo who has a slight disadvantage in reach, and has a rather funky style himself, and sometimes funk is fun, but not when you have a sharp boxer opposite you.
Raposo is someone who tried to get into the UFC a while ago via Dana Whites’ Contender Series, but didn’t quite succeed due to a loss against Jake Hadley. Raposo is a fairly well rounded fighter but from the footage that I have seen, he is mostly a stand up fighter who utilises variations of a two to three punch combination, with a bit of an emphasis on his wide right that he tends to swing from a somewhat loaded up position. Now, I do want to point out in a positive light that he does come from the New England Cartel, and that gym generally produces outstanding strikers, but I just think Raposo is a few steps (or leaps) behind the stars of the gym in Kattar and Font. Now, there are positives for Raposo, he shells up relatively well and he doesn’t stay in firing range the whole time, especially when shelling up, he circles away whilst keeping his guard up. The one thing I cannot help but notice though is how exposed his body is to attacks, he isn’t that adaptable when it comes to his defences, and whilst he has a very typical high shell, I can just see Lima exposing the body with strong punches, and given that Raposo isn’t quite prepared properly for a fight against Lima, those body punches could shut him down. Now, Raposo does have a strong right hand, the one he tends to wind up and throw from the same angle at the same speed and such, but once it lands it could certainly cause trouble for Lima.
Lima has incredible potential in the UFC, his boxing is very sharp and I do think that the fact he has been preparing for a fight for quite some time now shows that he has the cardio and the durability to perhaps outlast Raposo, especially if those body shots that I predict will be there, land effectively. I almost want to make him a 2/3 confidence pick, but since he’s new to the UFC, and Raposo does have a bit of danger himself, I don’t feel comfortable putting him that high of a confidence pick. This is a fun first fight of the night.
Lima via KO R2 - (1/3)
Women’s Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards (+210) (13-5-0, NS) v Ailin Perez (-265) (9-2-0, 2 FWS)
Edwards has had an interesting time in the UFC, she has had rather lacklustre performances against some of the more lower skilled fighters in the division. Edwards was introduced to us fans as a kickboxer from Panama, and for the most part her performances have echoed that style of kickboxing, but she walks into two metaphorical brick walls which hinder her performances. First, her cardio tends to fall apart relatively quickly, she does look fatigued after the second round, heck, even during it, and I do think considering Perez’s skillset is heavily wrestling based, that the fatigue problems will be a bit more prevalent, but that also tends to lead to a different issue that Edwards walks into, and that’s her weight. See, Edwards missed weight a few times in the UFC so far, and whilst those issues on the scales are perhaps anomalous to those two incidences, it does somewhat connect with her fatigue problems, she carries a lot of weight on fight day and that’s all a major contributor to exhaustion and fatigue. As for her record, it’s been stated many times, but she’s been gifted quite a few scorecards… She arguably lost to Pascual, Pudilova and even went to a split decision against Kim Ji-yeon. To say her record is pretty sketchy is putting it lightly. Her style is pretty standard for a boxer or kickboxer, she often strings together decent combinations with a fair bit of power given her size, but her major weakness is defending takedowns, and given that Perez is perhaps the first major wrestler that she is going to face, I suspect she’s going to be struggling to defend those takedowns, especially the longer the fight goes on, when that fatigue problem kicks in (if it kicks in).
Perez on the other hand is slightly more newer to the UFC, having had her debut at 145 against Egger before moving back down to 135 to take on Ashlee Evans-Smith and Pudilova, and it was in those two fights that we truly saw what Perez is capable of. Perez is very dependent on her takedowns, she does not strike a whole lot on her feet, she often uses some strikes to close the distance then level changes for a takedown or a judo throw, in which she then unleashes a lot of ground strikes, and it’s a bit obvious to me that she is going to utilise that exact style against the much taller and longer Edwards. Now, the longer this fight remains on the feet, the more chance Edwards has of pulling away with a win, but I only say that because I know that Edwards is going to have a striking advantage, but her kicks perhaps would be shut down by the wrestling threat of Perez.
This is very much a wrestler versus striker bout, and whilst you might argue that Edwards has shown some wrestling in her last fight against Cornolle, it’s important to know that Cornolle most definitely was not a wrestler so those takedowns would have been relatively easy, and there’s no doubt that Edwards has worked on her wrestling just so she is a more well rounded individual. I still firmly believe that Perez is going to get a win here through her wrestling, and the longer the fight goes on, the more Edwards is most likely to feel that fatigue. I am predicting a KO here, but it is going to be one of those ground and pound TKO’s. It’s also very possible this fight goes the distance so if you want to place a bet, either double chance this one or just have it go o2.5 or something.
Perez via KO R3 - (2/3)
Welterweight
Mickey Gall (+225) (7-5-0, 2 FLS) v Bassil Hafez (-290) (8-4-1, NS) - There is honestly not a lot to say about this one, Gall is severely overrated and a bit of a failed product of the Lookin’ for a fight show, and Hafez still has quite a lot to show us given he went three rounds against future contender Jack Della Maddalena.
Gall is coming off back to back losses over two years ago, so not only is he coming into this fight with a tough losing streak on his record, but those two years away are certainly muddying the waters a bit here. Anyway, Gall is mostly a submission artist, he somewhat thrives on the ground, although that would be a major gamble given the fact that Hafez is very wrestling oriented, and I mean, let's be honest, as long as a wrestler is in top control, it’s very rarely that they get submitted, and it’s not like Gall is some high level BJJ fighter with an impeccable record, he is just someone who has been given somewhat name-worthy opponents and that’s practically it. Gall's best chance to win this fight is on the ground, he needs to stick to his guns in this fight and be incredibly active on the ground or Hafez is going to shut down all of the submission attempts and just smother Gall in pressure. There is a possibility of Gall being somewhat effective on the feet, but a lot of his striking is fairly standard, often really using his grappling over anything else to get a win. One thing I don’t particularly like seeing when it comes to Gall’s striking is he is very still and perhaps too calm when he’s standing in front of someone, he doesn’t move his head a lot and his lead leg is often very out there and exposed, and whilst he does have quite a bit of power in his hands, I just don’t think he’s that capable of being a strong striker, his best skillset really is his BJJ. He is often quick to tie up his opponent or at least grab for a guillotine, and that guillotine will be there for him the more Hafez looks for takedowns, that will probably be the main threat coming from Gall for Hafez in my opinion.
Hafez has only one fight in the UFC but it was against one of the toughest opponents one can possibly debut against in Jack Della Maddalena, and whilst Hafez was simply outmatched on the feet, he persevered and still looked for those takedowns that he very much needed. It is the style of Hafez that will test Gall in this fight, because if Hafez attempted 20 takedowns against JDM who has exceptional takedown defence, I just think Hafez is going to have a bit of an easier time against Gall who is mostly a BJJ fighter who typically has terrible takedown defence, and I mean, this is something i’ve gone on and on about many times before, a good wrestler is a lot better than a good BJJ fighter, and whilst this is not exactly a case of Gall being a good BJJ fighter and Hafez being a good wrestler, that style clash is basically the same. Even if Gall does put up a good defence/offence on the ground, I do think Hafez and his grappling skillset is more than enough to deal with it. Hafez has gorgeous double leg takedowns, I mean, look at this beautiful takedown he used just seconds into his debut against JDM, he can do this over and over again, and realistically, he just needs to do this for the first two rounds, then he pretty much gets a win, but I think it’s going to be a relatively one sided wrestling attack by Hafez, and a few defensive submission attempts by Gall like guillotines or arm triangles off his back.
This is a great fight to be honest, I was rather impressed by the grit and determination of Hafez, he was getting torn up on the feet by JDM but still was willing to try and wrestle, resulting in a split decision loss, but an immeasurable amount of experience gained. I think Hafez gets a win here, but I only say that because I just don’t know how Gall is going to look coming off of a two year hiatus. We have sometimes seen insane improvements from fighters who take a few years off, so it’s possible Gall could look incredibly good, but based on what I know for “certain”, I think Hafez has this one.
Hafez via UD - (1/3)
Welterweight
Niko Price (+210) (15-7-0, 2 FLS) v Alex Morono (-260) (24-9-0, NS)
Morono is coming off a fairly competitive back and forth fight against McGee, and whilst he got the win, he didn’t look too great in there in all honesty. Morono does quite a few things with his striking that looks very funky and silly, he plods around a lot, his open elbow stance leaves him very open to being attacked, which often plays into his speed advantage in his fights as he can easily retaliate very quickly and land some thunderous punches. Morono is a very powerful boxer and he often uses a very quick left body or inside/outside leg kick with his boxing combinations just to add more sting to the sequence. However, as much as I find his striking style to be very unorthodox, what I do love about him is his grappling. Morono has ridiculously good BJJ, and whilst he doesn’t have the best takedown defence to take full control of his grappling ability, he is very, very good off his back. During his fight against Court McGee, he jumped the Guillotine, and whilst he didn’t successfully submit McGee, he was proactive in chasing an armbar off his back instead… It is the activity off the bottom that makes him a dangerous grappler and it’s always great to see. Now, Morono most likely has a fairly big power advantage here, and given that Price is coming off back to back KO losses, there is some question about whether or not his chin is durable enough to handle the right hand of Morono, and boy that right hand is a tough one to deal with.
Price is indeed coming off a KO loss against Robbie Lawler, and whilst it’s a tough loss for anyone, I do think that he still offers a great deal of threat for Morono, and whilst one might imagine the threat is going to be mostly his punching power, volume and other delicious words, I firmly believe that Price is going to chew up the legs of Morono very early and very often. Price is a fantastic leg kicker, he lands about one third of his strikes to the legs most of the time, and given that Morono is a very “plodding” stance fighter, I just cannot help but imagine that Price is going to land phenomenal leg kicks throughout this fight. However, the counter for leg kicks is, as we all should know by now, a power side attack, and if Price gets hit by that right hand, the momentum could shift very quickly. Now, if the fight ends up on the ground, I do think that Morono is going to swarm Price with overwhelming pressure and activity, given that Morono has excellent BJJ, and Price isn’t exactly that well versed on the ground.
As long as Price avoids the grappling and wrestling of Morono, he has a solid chance to win this fight, but I do think if he attacks the legs early and slows down the forward aggression of Morono, he could pull out an upset here, but that’s a bit of a big order given the threat of Morono’s quick one-two and his ability to utilise a wide range of attacks throughout all three rounds. This is very much a 50/50 fight though, I don’t feel confident at all in either fighter to win, and whilst I think Morono has more tools and more pathways to victory, Price could indeed surprise us this weekend.
Morono via UD - (1/3)
Welterweight
Phil Rowe (+135) (10-4-0, NS) v Jake Matthews (-165) (19-7-0, NS) - This is certainly a fascinating fight, but the first thing that screams at me is the size difference between Rowe and Matthews.
Rowe is coming off a back and forth, relatively slow and unimpressive fight against Magny, and whilst the fight took place in the clinch for the large majority of the fight, I did enjoy watching him use his reach by throwing that quick one-two down the pipe, and its that one-two that is going to be fairly problematic for Matthews given the fact that Rowe has an 8 inch reach advantage. I do believe that if Rowe keeps this fight clean, he has a major advantage here, but there is a glaring problem that I can see Matthews expose, and that’s the lack of defence that Rowe has. Whilst his ranged attacks are relatively effective, I do not like how hittable he is because he does not use footwork a lot, he just stands in front of his opponents target zone, kind of eating punches whilst trying to maintain his range. This is a problem for Rowe in this fight because Matthews is the type to push forward at a strong pace and let his own hands go effectively. Rowe has a phenomenal right hand, it is very accurate and thanks to the reach advantage, I don’t think he needs to show it off too much for it to be effective, he would just need to pop it out there in order to have it land. Now, Magny did make the fight gritty in the third round when they fought, and I did notice that whenever a pocket exchange is initiated, Rowe is on the receiving end of the harder shots, and that is primarily due to his lack of footwork and evasive movement in that particular bout, and whilst he did underperform during his fight against Magny, I do think he has the sharper, straighter punches that could be problematic for Matthews if Matthews is unable to close the distance and enter the pocket effectively.
Matthews is coming off a tough loss against Michael Morales, and it was in that fight that we saw Matthews get hit the most in his UFC career, receiving 84 significant strikes, although I think it’s fair to say that Matthews’ incredible defence allowed him to absorb those significant strikes without much serious damage. Matthews’ defence is actually one of the most impressive things I have seen, he shells up so effectively whilst leaving his stance open enough for aggressive retaliation. Everything Matthews throws comes with him immediately shelling up and moving off the centre line, he is impeccable with his defensive timing, and whilst he has been stumbled and rocked before, he has never really been in dire trouble. I do see Matthews using his overhand left followed by a quick duck followed by a straight right, that is his best entrance for the pocket and it is something he has used incredibly well against Morales. It is this exact style which makes his fight against Rowe a phenomenal match up because we have seen Rowe struggle when an opponent enters range, and I think Matthews is a lot more quick and explosive with forward momentum than Magny is. Plus, it helps that Matthews is such a gritty fighter, constantly moving forward and putting on strong pressure even if he gets hit, and that’s mostly due to his defence, he is just so good at absorbing and blocking damage whilst moving forward.
It honestly is a bit of a story between who can initiate their gameplan a bit better. For Rowe, he needs to be active at range, on the feet, he needs to use that quick one-two to freeze up Matthews and just eventually find the chin, because the chin is there, especially if feints are involved because Matthews does instinctively shell up a lot when something is coming his way, feint or otherwise. However, I do see Matthews making this a chaotic fight, especially since he loves to enter the range by weaving into the pocket, where Rowe is perhaps at his most uncomfortable. I got Matthews winning this one, I think his experience is going to shine here, as well as the fact that his defensive habits are going to be pivotal in mitigating a lot of the dangerous shots coming his way. I am not very confident in Matthews, I do see Rowe being dangerous at range still, but I just think Matthews ability to enter the pocket here is going to be the main story here.
Matthews via UD - (1/3)
Lightweight
Grant Dawson (#15) (-320) (20-2-1, NS) v Joe Solecki (+250) (13-4-0, NS)
Dawson is coming off a rough KO loss against Bobby Green, and that was always going to be one of the main outcomes for that fight since Green has excellent boxing, and thankfully for Dawson, that boxing or striking threat will be mostly gone here since Solecki isn’t at all a striker. Dawson is a very well rounded fighter who is incredibly effective on the ground, he is someone who is able to keep up a high pace of activity and still have enough cardio to be explosive, and I do think that the UFC is kind of making this fight a “comeback” fight for Dawson because I honestly don’t think Solecki has enough of an all round threat to make this interesting for Dawson. Dawson is going to employ the same strategy he has done in almost all of his fights, and that’s wrestle and control, he is so good at maintaining advantageous positions on the ground and the longer he is in top control, the worse it is for Solecki whose only chance to win this fight is to find a submission off his back, but since Dawson has ridiculously good wrestling and grappling himself, I think he can see any set up that Solecki attempts coming. On the feet I could say Dawson has the advantage here, but I don’t think a lot of the fight is going to take place on the feet, I think there’s going to be a lot of wrestling involved with Dawson being in the better positions.
Solecki is a sneaky fighter though, and whilst he has had some underwhelming fights, I do think the threat of his submissions are going to be fairly prevalent. I don’t think those submissions are going to land. Now, I will put a major disclaimer here saying I have struggled to find a lot of “working” tape for Solecki, and I have been unable to find what submission attempts he used against Alex Da Silva when they fought two years ago, I only bring this up because I believe Solecki is active off his back and if he is lucky he could at least make Dawson’s control time a bit more difficult, but I still don’t think Solecki has that kind of threat to catch Dawson in anything, so whilst he might be active off his back and in the guard, it’s going to be the kind of activity that results in Dawson just adjusting over and over.
I don’t really have much else to say about this one, Dawson is the better all round fighter and a much better wrestler, and I do think that whilst both fighters have outstanding BJJ, Solecki’s submission output could make it a bit gritty for Dawson, but this isn’t new for Dawson, Dawsons faced excellent grapplers before (Ismagulov, Madsen and Gordon to name his recent wins). Dawson should win this one in my opinion.
Dawson via UD - (2/3)
Middleweight
Roman Kopylov (-135) (12-3-0, NS) v Cesar Almeida (+115) (5-0-0, 5 FWS)
Kopylov is coming off a tough submission loss against Alexander Hernandez, and it was a competitive fight up until that point. One thing that I like about Kopylov is his diversity with striking, he is ridiculously quick on the feet for a Middleweight and that allows him to simply flick out anything and there’s some certainty that it’s going to land. He has a very quick and sneaky lead leg kick that he often uses to change target very quickly, usually kicking the leg then following up with a left straight, instead of what we see in typical combinations where the leg kick is the final attack in a sequence. Kopylov does get hit a lot, and he does leave his right hand a bit far from his face, which makes me think that Almeida and his fantastic left hook is going to be a major problem for Kopylov. However, Kopylov does have some grappling in his arsenal, although we have yet to see it in the UFC, but since he is a multiple time sambo champion, I can’t help but think that he is going to be using his wrestling a fair bit in this fight, especially since he is facing one hell of a dangerous kickboxer, it would only make some sense, right? Now, on the feet, there are two attacks that Kopylov is going to put a major emphasis on, that is the liver body kick (left roundhouse) and the left straight, those two attacks are going to be his most damaging and I do wonder how effective it will be in slowing down Almeida.
Almeida is coming off a strong debut win against Budka, and whilst Budka isn’t exactly a tough debut, he still managed to test Almeida a little bit on the ground. However, as I highlighted in my last write up about Almeida, his defensive grappling is very, very good, he has adapted exceptionally well to MMA. Now, Almeida is one hell of a dangerous kickboxer, he is stupendously sharp on the feet and he is tight with his combinations, and it is for that reason alone that I think Kopylov needs to wrestle in this fight, use his Sambo to mix it up and make it frustrating for Almeida. Now, Almeida is outstanding at all ranges, but I think he excels in the pocket where he can land his tight left hook, a left hook that’s eerily similar to Pereira, it’s just a clean left hook that has no read and a lot of power behind it, and I think Kopylov is going to have to be the first one to start the action in order to not let Almeida settle in to throw that hook.
This is going to be a fantastic fight though, and honestly a fascinating match up for Kopylov who, up until this moment, only faced standard MMA strikers who throw big power with not that much technique, so this is going to be fascinating. Going with the underdog here, but it will absolutely not be a high confidence pick.
Almeida via KO R2 - (1/3)
Main Card
Welterweight
Randy Brown (-155) (18-5-0, 2 FWS) v Elizeu Zaleski (+130) (24-7-1, 1D/2FWS) - This is going to be absolutely awesome.
Brown is coming off a fantastic KO over highly touted kickboxing veteran Muslim Salikhov, and despite the fact that Brown did defeat Salikhov, it did not come without a lot of damage coming his way. Brown suffers a little bit from what a lot of longer and taller fighters suffer from, and that's a lack of fundamental striking defence, his range and reach is his defence, if someone can penetrate that reach difference and enter the pocket, then Brown is a vulnerable target in that moment. However, when Brown is at range and he’s in the zone, he is incredible. His long jab is his best weapon, he uses it to both damage his opponent and to set up subsequent punches, and these shots aren’t always the same, there are so many permutations of that same set up, as soon as you see Brown throw more than one jab, you know he is setting up a clean combination. However, he has shown a bit of a weakness and that’s his legs, he is so easy to leg kick due to his height and size, his lead leg is ripe for the taking and there is little doubt in my mind that Zaleski is going to chew up those legs early, as that was the game plan for Salikhov before that one-one-two combination came his way at ridiculous speeds.
Zaleski is coming off a draw against Rinat Fakhretdinov, and very early on we saw Zaleski struggle with the pressure and power of Fakhretdinov. That pressure and power is not exactly the style of fighting that Brown utilises, Brown is a lot more patient and systematic with his approach, never pressuring his opponent but keeping a constant pace of a wide sort of attacks. Zaleski has ridiculous power in his hands though and he has the speed and explosiveness to enter the pocket and land those dangerous punches that are going to land whenever he is going to enter the pocket during this bout. However, Zaleski does not have the best defence, he often leaves his hands a bit low, and whilst that’s great for an explosive overhand or a quick burst of action that’s hard to read, I don’t think that’s a good kind of defence when you’re fighting someone who has a 5 inch reach advantage and a 4 inch height advantage. Zaleski is not a safe fighter, he is here to perform and look for highlights, he is an incredible finisher, but he is also reckless, he is also susceptible to getting hurt, and whilst he did exceptionally well against Fakhretdinov, that was mostly due to Fakhretdinov’s predictable attacks. Now, Fakhretdinov threw the same attacks over and over, and since that same attack was the one that dropped Zaleski, he kept using that same thing. In order to be effective in any combat sport, especially against a veteran, you need to have different combinations, and that’s exactly what Brown has, he has such a wide range of attacks, including his very snappy front and head kicks, so there is little doubt that Zaleski is going to be somewhat overwhelmed on the feet if Brown finds his groove early on.
This is a fantastic fight, perhaps one of the best fights on this card, I expect there to be fireworks and a lot of adjustments as the rounds go on, but I do think that Brown is going to get a win here, his reach and height advantage gives him a lot of additional set ups and effective strikes, those front kicks up the middle could be effective given the loose shell of Zaleski, and those long one-two punches that Brown uses are just beautiful to watch. This is going to be awesome. Now, before I get to the prediction… Zaleski has the right tools to make this messy enough to get a win here, so there will be an alt bet here for a Zaleski Points/KO Double Chance.
Brown via UD - (1/3)
Heavyweight
Jailton Almeida (#6) (-300) (20-3-0, NS) v Alexandr Romanov (#14) (+240) (17-2-0, NS)
Almeida is coming off a KO loss against Blaydes just a few months ago, and I mean, losing to someone like Blaydes isn’t too big of a deal since Blaydes is a genuine talent in the division, but I do wonder how Almeida has improved since that loss. Almeida is a very grapple heavy fighter who has torn through a division full of unathletic brawlers, and now he is facing fighters who have a very similar style and skill set that he has, which makes this fight all that more interesting because I have been very high on Romanov in recent years, mostly due to his style being unique in the heavyweight division. Almeida has ridiculous cardio for someone at heavyweight, and whilst you could argue that his lay and pray style does not really reflect great cardio… how often are we going to see Blaydes get taken down 9 of 13 times. 13 fucking attempts against someone who has one of the best wrestling backgrounds in the UFC at heavyweight? Almeida’s wrestling is going to be a problem for a lot of people, even as we move up the division, but it comes at a cost. Almeida is very one dimensional, he has a heavy reliance on those takedowns, and if he doesn’t get them, you get a repeat of what Blaydes did to him. On the feet I don’t see a lot happening, Almeida has shown to be a bit more free with his boxing, only to open up his opponent to takedowns, and that could very well be the gameplan for Almeida this weekend, box a little then shoot for a takedown, and it could be effective against Romanov who is a bit more one dimensional than Almeida.
Romanov has somewhat stagnated a tiny bit in his career, with a not-very-recent win over Blagoy Ivanov, and for the most part it was a strong showing of his wrestling ability and strength, however I do question the quality of opponent that Romanov has defeated in comparison to Almeida’s… It seems that Almeida has been given the more star-power names whereas Romanov has been climbing the ranks in a more natural way. Anyway, I like Romanov, but I genuinely don’t think he is going to fare well against someone like Almeida. If an old 40+ year old in Espino can out wrestle Romanov, there is no doubt that a younger and perhaps more athletic fighter in Almeida can replicate that same kind of style and just overwhelm Romanov. Romanov is a strong competitor though so I think there might be enough resistance in the wrestling department to make this fight a long, gruelling one.
A very fun clash of similar styles here, which I find pretty important since Almeida is a very impressive fighter, and I think the more we see him take on opponents with a similar style to himself, the more we get to see what he is truly capable of. I got Almeida winning this one, it should be a fun fight!
Almeida via UD - (2/3)
Middleweight
Kevin Holland (-250) (25-11-0, 2 FLS) v Michal Oleksiejczuk (+200) (19-7-0, NS) - Oh man do I love this fight.
Holland is coming off back to back losses against JDM and MVP (Jack Della Maddalena and Michael “Venom” Page”), and whilst back to back losses could easily make people dismiss Holland, I do want to bring up how competitive his fight against JDM was, and how durable and tough he was when MVP was taking his soul in what was such a brilliant display of unorthodox kickboxing. Holland has always been a game fighter, he has a chin that allows him to hang in there with the hardest hitters, and he is genuinely a very skilled fighter who has outstanding boxing and such an expert at range and luring his opponent into an angle that gives him an advantage. Holland is coming back up to 185 after a fun stint at 170, and since Oleksiejczuk has very little wrestling threat, I am excited to see if we witness Holland be himself once again, because prior to his losses against Brunson and Vettori at 185, he was a dangerous fighter. Holland has a substantial reach advantage coming into this fight which is only going to shine even more when Oleksiejczuk tries to box him in a typical boxing range. Holland is also a fairly experienced grappler, he has quite a few submissions on his record and I do think that if he wants the path of least resistance when fighting Oleksiejczuk, he is going to look for that takedown and find a submission. However, that’s not how Holland fights, he is a crowd pleaser and is most likely going to want to keep this fight standing so he can land his quick combinations at range and just put away Oleksiejczuk that way.
Oleksiejczuk is coming off a tough sub loss against Pereira, and I honestly learnt nothing else about him during that fight, he was still looking for those heavy punches, and he still had somewhat bad takedown defence. I do think that Oleksiejczuk’s best chance to win this fight is to put Holland away, but it’s just a bit of a tall order because if Holland couldn’t get knocked out by the ridiculous power of MVP, I don’t think Oleksiejczuk is going to achieve that success that MVP tried to chase. The reach disadvantage is going to be fairly prominent here too, it’s going to make Oleksiejczuk rush in a little bit with some explosive forward movement in order to cover the distance, but Holland is so good at crowding punches and being hard to hit that I just don’t think Oleksiejczuk is going to land too cleanly on Holland.
With that said, I’ve always been a fan of Holland so maybe there is a bit of bias here, but I think Holland wins this one, i’m just mostly curious to see how he looks when he returns to 185 this weekend.
Holland via KO R2 - (2/3)
Co-Main Event
Middleweight
Sean Strickland (#2) (-205) (28-6-0, NS) v Paulo Costa (#8) (+170) (14-3-0, NS)
Strickland is coming off a very competitive fight against Dricus Du Plessis, and whilst he arguably won that fight, what I was most impressed with was the little amount of damage he absorbed, even by one of the most powerful punchers in DDP, and if Strickland could absorb that little amount of damage from DDP, I can only think that he is going to be relatively fine against Costa. Strickland does struggle a little bit in turning up the pressure when pressure is needed, he does have a bit of a predictable style which has been talked about for ages, but it’s a style that works, and if he sets a high pace of steady volume and walks Costa back throughout the fight, he can easily win this fight. The only thing that Strickland needs to be careful of is the power of Costa coming back his way.
Costa is coming off a tough loss against Whittaker, and whilst he did display that power late into the first round, he struggled to keep up with the speed and footwork of Whittaker. Now, the good news for Costa is that Stricklands footwork only involves walking forward, and occasionally taking a step back, there is no tricky blitzes or anything, so the striking success rate for Costa should be at least more stable numerically in the second and third if he doesn’t succumb to the pressure and slow down in those two rounds. However, I don’t trust Costa’s gas tank that much, he may be a physical specimen but the power he throws with is unsustainable for a three round back and forth, and it’s certainly not the first time Strickland has fought a powerhouse. My main concern however is the judges scorecards, and I know its a bit weird to talk about judging, but when you have big action fighters throwing things that aren’t super effective, the visuals reflect effectiveness, regardless of the supposed damage received, will the judges this fight see Costa throw heavy, despite not landing cleanly (which is hard to do against Strickland) and give the rounds to Costa? If that is the case, then a Costa Decision certainly should be in your books, but I just think that Strickland and his 4 inch reach advantage is going to be too effective in stifling the aggression of Costa.
I ultimately have Strickland winning this fight, I never really have been big on Costa, he’s a fun fighter to watch, but when you have Strickland taking away a lot of that fun by marching down a lot of his opponents, you get a Costa that struggles to keep up a bit. This is going to be a low confidence pick due to the judging factor, I have a weird feeling about this one lol.
Strickland via UD - (1/3)
Main Event
Lightweight Championship Bout
Islam Makhachev (c) (-480) (25-1-0, 13 FWS) v Dustin Poirier (#5) (+360) (30-8-0, NS)
Makhachev is one of the most well rounded fighters in the UFC at the moment. Everything he does is with clean technique and outstanding timing, and he has the cardio to keep up a ridiculously high pace for 5 rounds. There is no doubt in my mind that he is going to be using his brilliant wrestling and grappling to slowly dismantle Poirier, because Poirier’s grappling is rudimentary at best, it does not hold a candle to Makhachevs wrestling. There is a lot of discussion about Poirier landing a guillotine on Makhachev, but it’s all hype and hope at this rate because if he could not land a guillotine on BSD, he probably isn’t going to land one against a high level wrestler in Makhachev. Makhachev is a few steps behind when it comes to boxing though, I do not see him being successful against Poirier on the feet, Poirier’s striking is sublime, it is the most brilliant close range striking that you’ll probably ever see in the LW division, those tight hooks he uses is something nasty.
Poirier is on his last legs career wise, there is quite a lot weighing on him for this one as it is his final chance to get a belt, so that’s already a lot of pressure, but I guess he thrives in this kind of environment. Poirier is going to have to contend with the almost instant wrestling pressure and pace of Makhachev, and given that Poirier is not at all a wrestler, he is going to get taken down, he got taken down quite a few times when he fought a very depleted BSD, and now he’s coming up against a very physically ready Makhachev, I just don’t see Poirier doing too well in the wrestling department against Makhachev. However, when it comes to the striking, Poirier holds all the cards here, he has incredible timing with his lead hook and if he times it right, that uppercut could be disastrous for Makhachev. It’s going to be the hook and the uppercut that catch Makhachev, but if Makhachev can survive those attacks and get his hands wrapped around Poirier, it’s not going to matter if Poirier rocks Makhachev in the process, Makhachev is insane in top position.
That’s the story here, Poirier’s boxing versus Makhachevs wrestling and grappling. I got Makhachev winning this one, but it is always a good idea to sprinkle a bit of money on a Poirier KO, especially since he’s such a big underdog here.
Makhachev via Sub R2 - (2/3)
And that's it!
Primary Parlay - Price/Morono o2.5 or GTD + Dawson/Solecki o2.5 or GTD + Almeida/Kopylov ITD + Makhachev/Poirier ITD
Secondary Parlay - Price/Morono o2.5 or GTD + Almeida/Romanov R3 Starts Yes + Strickland/Costa o2.5 + Makhachev/Poirier u3.5 or ITD
Locks: Perez (optional), Dawson, Almeida, Holland and Makhachev.
Prediction Accuracy for 2024: 64.3%
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2024.05.29 07:53 MERTENS_GOAT [MisterChip] Junior is the 1st team in the entire Copa Libertadores history to draw all 3 Group Stage home games and reach the KO stage. Alianza Lima can do it as well tomorrow.
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2024.05.29 06:24 PhilsBot The Phillies fell to the Giants by a score of 1-0 - Tue, May 28 @ 09:45 PM EDT
Phillies @ Giants - Tue, May 28
Game Status: Final - Score: 1-0 Giants
Links & Info
| Phillies Batters | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | K | LOB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schwarber - DH | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .241 | .364 | .409 |
| 2 | Realmuto - C | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | .284 | .327 | .454 |
| 3 | Harper - 1B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .267 | .377 | .524 |
| 4 | Castellanos, N - RF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | .199 | .264 | .308 |
| 5 | Stott - 2B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .244 | .348 | .390 |
| 6 | Sosa, E - SS | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .325 | .400 | .600 |
| 7 | Marsh - LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | .260 | .331 | .422 |
| 8 | Clemens - 3B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .256 | .293 | .615 |
| 9 | Rojas - CF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .227 | .270 | .300 |
| a-Bohm - PH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .309 | .365 | .493 | |
| Pache - CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .196 | .296 | .261 | |
| Totals | 36 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| Phillies |
|---|
| a-Grounded out for Rojas in the 10th. |
| BATTING: 2B: Realmuto (8, Howard). TB: Castellanos, N; Realmuto 2; Rojas; Schwarber 2; Sosa, E 2. Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Marsh; Realmuto. Team RISP: 0-for-5. Team LOB: 9. |
| FIELDING: DP: (Clemens-Stott-Harper). |
| Giants Batters | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | K | LOB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matos - CF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .258 | .286 | .394 |
| 2 | Yastrzemski - RF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | .218 | .284 | .380 |
| 3 | Estrada - 2B | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .243 | .275 | .419 |
| 4 | Chapman, M - 3B | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .241 | .309 | .420 |
| 5 | Bailey - C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | .299 | .352 | .477 |
| 6 | Soler - DH | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | .206 | .293 | .363 |
| 7 | Wisely - SS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .409 | .391 | .591 |
| a-Fitzgerald - SS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .264 | .316 | .434 | |
| 8 | Ramos - LF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .275 | .351 | .420 |
| 9 | Brooks - 1B | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| b-Flores - 1B | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .211 | .280 | .286 | |
| Totals | 31 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 19 |
| Giants |
|---|
| a-Walked for Wisely in the 8th. b-Flied out for Brooks in the 8th. |
| BATTING: TB: Chapman, M 2; Estrada 2. RBI: Matos (20). Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Soler; Yastrzemski; Fitzgerald. SF: Matos. GIDP: Soler. Team RISP: 0-for-9. Team LOB: 8. |
| FIELDING: DP: (Bailey-Wisely). |
| Phillies Pitchers | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | P-S | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheeler | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 101-70 | 2.32 |
| Kerkering | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18-12 | 1.47 |
| Alvarado | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 22-10 | 3.47 |
| Hoffman | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-11 | 1.14 |
| Strahm (L, 3-1) | 0.2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6-4 | 0.81 |
| Totals | 9.2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Giants Pitchers | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | P-S | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miller, E | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20-11 | 4.21 |
| Rogers, Ta | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 26-16 | 2.91 |
| Howard | 4.0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 49-36 | 0.00 |
| Rogers, Ty | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14-12 | 3.12 |
| Hjelle (W, 2-1) | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28-20 | 2.95 |
| Totals | 10.0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Game Info |
|---|
| WP: Alvarado. |
| IBB: Schwarber (by Hjelle); Matos (by Alvarado); Ramos (by Strahm). |
| Pitches-strikes: Wheeler 101-70; Kerkering 18-12; Alvarado 22-10; Hoffman 14-11; Strahm 6-4; Miller, E 20-11; Rogers, Ta 26-16; Howard 49-36; Rogers, Ty 14-12; Hjelle 28-20. |
| Groundouts-flyouts: Wheeler 4-2; Kerkering 0-0; Alvarado 1-1; Hoffman 0-1; Strahm 0-2; Miller, E 0-0; Rogers, Ta 3-1; Howard 3-2; Rogers, Ty 2-0; Hjelle 4-2. |
| Batters faced: Wheeler 21; Kerkering 3; Alvarado 5; Hoffman 5; Strahm 3; Miller, E 4; Rogers, Ta 7; Howard 16; Rogers, Ty 4; Hjelle 7. |
| Umpires: HP: Rob Drake. 1B: D.J. Reyburn. 2B: John Libka. 3B: James Hoye. |
| Weather: 60 degrees, Clear. |
| Wind: 16 mph, Out To CF. |
| First pitch: 6:46 PM. |
| T: 2:32. |
| Att: 34,655. |
| Venue: Oracle Park. |
| May 28, 2024 |
| Inning | Scoring Play | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Bottom 10 | Luis Matos out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Tyler Fitzgerald scores. | 1-0 SF |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E | LOB | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 | |
| Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
Decisions
- Winner: Sean Hjelle (2-1, 2.95)
- Loser: Matt Strahm (3-1, 0.81)
Division Scoreboard
LAD 5 @ NYM 2 - FinalLAD 3 @ NYM 0 - Final
WSH 0 @ ATL 2 - Final
MIA 0 @ SD 4 - Final
Next Phillies Game: Wed, May 29, 03:45 PM EDT @ Giants
Last Updated: 05/29/2024 01:15:08 AM EDT
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